Among the sports betting public there’s a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That’s not really surprising, since there doesn’t seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater “lock” that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.
The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone–simply stated, the games don’t count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It’s hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable ‘spot’ during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.
But like the old saying goes “every dark cloud has a silver lining”. And the divergent agendas at play in preseason football can be seen as precisely why it is a good wagering opportunity. For example, say the Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to play an ‘also ran’ team like the Houston Texans. By regular season standards, the Steelers would almost certainly be favored. In the preseason, however, they’ll often have a different agenda for the individual game. A “better” team has more concern about protecting key players. and usually has fewer personnel decisions to deal with. They don’t need to worry about implementing coaching changes, or creating ‘team chemistry’. As a result, ‘better’ teams frequently approach preseason games as a mere annoyance.
Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A “lesser” team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they’ll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games”whether or not they count in the standings”are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won’t have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league’s elite can mean a lot more.
While some teams could care less about the result of preseason games, few want to enter the regular season having lost them all. In light of this fact, a successful preseason situation that has stood the test of time is to bet on teams that lost their first two exhibition games outright. This situation has produced a winning percentage right around 60%.
Perhaps nothing determines a team’s approach to the preseason more than the philosophy of the head coach. Some coaches simply hate to lose anytime they line ‘em up to play football, and as a result their teams are usually good preseason bets. Bill Parcells was famous for the preseason focus of his teams. Not surprisingly, many who worked with Parcells earlier in their careers are now carving out their own records of preseason success. This sort of dominance isn’t lost on the linesmaker and a coach like the Giants’ Tom Coughlin (a former Parcells assistant) will have his ATS success will definitely been factored into the pointspread. Still, a motivated team that wants to win is always worthy of consideration.
One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it’s a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you’ll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren’t any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach’s goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they’re considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There’s nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the preseason, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.
In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.
Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer specializing in travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.
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